Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The Economy
Hey, banking industry! What the fuck guys? Seriously? What the fuck is going on? You guys want capitalism to work? Then stop being so FUCKING stupid about it! For christ's sake, you don't get to beg for deregulation than get bailed out by the government.
And hey, government! Don't even pretend that you aren't in bed with the corporations when you dudes talk about personal responsibility while giving major banks HUGE reach-arounds. Holy shit! This is such garbage.
The economy is on the brink of collapse because of all you guys' irresponsibility. And what's worse, is that you're existence hinges on our collective irresponsibility. We have created an economy that needs debt in order to feed itself. It was only a matter of time, now wasn't it.
Fuck you guys! I'd say you can all wither and die, but then all of our money disappears, so just fuck you. Fucking pricks.
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Ok, I hate government's laissez-faire policies as much as the next guy....but thank god AIG got that loan, technically we the tax payers own about 80% of the AIG..i don't know if people who aren't in the industry quite get the whole picture or understand what is at stake here. Put it this way, it's 11:39PM, I'm still at work. I've been here since 7:30AM. Do you knwo what I'm doing? Catching up on work that had to be put on hold over the past few days because of this. hmm like reviewing a National Union policy for United Technologies and a Lexington Policy for Beacon Capital. National Union and Lexington are both part of AIG...
This is an historical event. Well, if they filed Chapter 11 we all would've been completely fucked...and I mean it..we all would've. I think it was interesting how the Fed bailed out AIG and not Lehman Bros. Then I started to think of it and I had that "Ah Hah!" moment. AIG has customers - obligations to policy holders, they are present in financial markets around the world. Lehman Bros is investment banking, they really don't have obligations to their customers. Lehman Bros went under, yeah, it sucks, it hurts Wall St, but it doesn't have that direct punch like the demise of AIG would. I just couldn't believe how fast this all happened. I mean, Monday morning Lehman Bros. Monday afternoon, the Dow is down more than it was after 9/11. Then AIG is going under and we're all going to die!!!! well not exactly but we're all fucked. Then the rumors start...haha.
See, I work for Willis which is one of the world's largest insurance brokerages. I work in Risk Management on large accounts like United Technologies, Unifirst, BJ's, TJX, Royal Bank of Scotland (Aka Citizens) etc. These companies need to have programs with over $1.5 billion of coverage. AIG usually puts up 20-30% of these limits per program - our office alone has 35 accounts where AIG is the lead primary carrier. The disorderly dissolution/collapse of AIG would be catastrophic, not only to our clients (policy holders)and the insurance sector but for the financial markets globally - as AIG is in every nook and crannie of the financial markets. Over the past 5 months or so, I have kept a tight watch on the market security of AIG and XL Insurance (that's another story)and released updates to our clients on changes regarding the rating agency's outlooks and watches (AM Best put AIG on negative watch, even though subsidiaries are still rated fair based on the individual entities financial statements and liquidity). As the economy stands and with what has happened with Lehman bros, a disorderly failure of AIG would only add to the already fragile finacial market and lead to substantially higher borrowing costs as well as significantly weaker economic performance.
Needless to say, AIG is only the holding company of smaller entities - but their presence is evident in every nook and crannie of the world's financial markets.
Simply put, the Fed's action has given AIG a vital lifeline that gives them and the policy holders (basically us - the consumers) time to consider all the viable options. This isn't the Fed bailing AIG out, it's the Fed giving them time for an orderly breakdown of the holding group's assets. The Fed's decision definitely has a better outcome than the alternative of AIG going into Chapter 11 because now it is certain that there is an intention to uphold and honor obligations to policy holders/customers.
It is also liketly that given the expense of the loan, and the need to seek solutions quickly to policyholder issues, the scenarios regarding the sale of the assets will play out considerably more quickly than the 2 year term of the loan itself. There will be no dicking around on AIG's part.
The whole purpose of this loan is to make sure AIG meets it's obligations to policy holders and otherwise as they come due. If liquidity was AIG's problem then the solution would be to improve their liquidity, right? This loan will allow AIG to sell off it's assets/entities in an orderly manner which will in turn cause the least possible disruption to the global economy.
ok I'm going back to work - my laptop is being delivered tomorrow, no more proxy avoiders to get around my "websense facebook blocker" haha.
I see. My economic understanding is a little better than basic, so this piece was written from what I could put together. That all makes sense, but to anyone who doesn't have an in depth knowledge of the market, this looks bad. And that has to do with the Economy as a whole right now. We've set up a system that's balancing very trickily, and always has been. Hence why total deregulation is a pretty bad idea right now.
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